LAST WEEK AGAINST THE SPREAD: 6-9-1
SEASON RECORD: 113-117-7
GREEN BAY AT DETROIT
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Outlook: With the Lions’ playoff hopes dashed last week, Detroit is playing for pride — and, quite possibly, Jim Caldwell’s job. Caldwell is the most successful coach in Lions’ recent history, but for a team that missed the playoffs 13 out of 14 years before his arrival, that’s not saying much. Constant mediocrity is a tough hole to dig out from, and how the Lions play in this game could swing what will be a tough decision. The Packers, at least, have an excuse for this season’s failures. Aaron Rodgers will return in 2018 and all will be well again. But for this last week of the season, it could get ugly. Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams may both miss this game.
Player to watch: Brett Hundley, QB. The Packers have had an extended look at the former UCLA passer this season, and, well, it hasn’t gone all that smoothly. Hundley set an NFL record for the most passes (162) without a touchdown at home. Lucky for him, this game will be on the road. It may be his last chance to show whether he’s worth a trade, before Rodgers comes back next season.
Line: Lions by 7
Pick: Lions, 27-20
NEW YORK JETS AT NEW ENGLAND
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Outlook: For the Patriots, this game is all about self-preservation. With just a one-game lead over the Steelers for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Patriots need to win to officially lock it up. Bill Belichick has made clear that he won’t let his team overlook the Jets. But even if they do, things don’t look good for New York. Bryce Petty has been downright bad in two weeks as the starter, and for some reason, the Jets refuse to try giving the reins to former second-rounder Christian Hackenberg. Either way, with Tom Brady and Co. in need of a smooth victory here, the Jets don’t really stand a chance.
Player to watch: Rob Gronkowski, TE. There aren’t many skill position players in the NFL this season that could match Gronkowski’s recent four-game stretch. He’s got 462 yards and three touchdowns since Thanksgiving, and in New York, he’ll face another team that struggles to defend the seam. Gronk at the height of his powers is simply unstoppable.
Line: Patriots by 15.5
Pick: Patriots, 24-10
HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Outlook: Two months ago, before Deshaun Watson’s injury dashed their hopes, the Texans offense was one of the more explosive in the NFL. In Week 17, they’ll end a lost season with T.J. Yates under center and top wideout DeAndre Hopkins on the sideline. Truth is neither offense will be much to look at in this one. Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett may have more to play for, given that he has a plus matchup and could be auditioning to quarterback another team next year, when Andrew Luck returns. But relying on the Colts for offensive fireworks is a dangerous proposal, even against the Texans cellar-dwelling secondary.
Player to watch: T.Y. Hilton, WR. For the first time in his last seven games, Hilton went over 100 yards receiving last Sunday. His results this season haven’t exactly warranted the $13 million the Colts will have to pay him next season. With Andrew Luck coming back, they’ll have a decision to make on their top wideout this offseason.
Line: Colts by 5
Pick: Colts, 23-17
WASHINGTON AT NEW YORK GIANTS
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Outlook: For Eli Manning, a quarterback who gave the Giants two Super Bowls, this may be the end. The team promoted rookie Davis Webb to No. 2, and he may get a shot to show what he’s got in this meaningless season finale. In all likelihood, the Giants will draft one of the top collegiate quarterbacks to take the reins in April. Either Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold may help the Giants in 2018, but there’s not much that anyone can do for this team right now, as the locker room seems entirely lost. Any week in which a player calls his teammate a “cancer” isn’t exactly a good week for the franchise. There aren’t many teams that can distract from Washington’s disappointing season, but the Giants are one. They have another Eli — Eli Apple — to thank.
Player to watch: Kirk Cousins, QB. At this point, it’s hard not to feel bad for Cousins, who struggled through a dreadful season in Washington, in which his offensive line and tops weapons have been hurt. Still, Cousins will surpass the 4,000-yard mark this week, barring injury. His price may have gone down this season, and some team should get a good deal.
Line: Washington by 3
Pick: Washington, 28-16
CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Outlook: There’s only one nightmare scenario in which the Vikings don’t become the NFC’s No. 2 seed and secure a bye. That would require the Vikings to lose this game, the Rams to lose to the 49ers, the Saints to lose to the Bucs, and the Panthers to beat the Falcons. Sure, it’s possible. But likely? Not quite. The Bears don’t have much to play for, and the Vikings defense remains one of the most suffocating units in the NFL. The most intrigue from this game may be if we get a chance to see Teddy Bridgewater or Sam Bradford, both of whom could be active. Case Keenum is still the guy, but if he starts to self-destruct in a playoff game, could Mike Zimmer have a quick trigger?
Player to watch: Mitch Trubisky, QB. He’s had moments this season in which he’s looked like a franchise quarterback. But the reality is that Trubisky has made too many mistakes and hasn’t had enough weapons on offense to do much of anything as a rookie. The Bears need to bring in some help. Against a tough defense, we should get an idea how much of an uphill climb his development will be.
Line: Vikings by 12
Pick: Vikings, 24-13
DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Outlook: The Eagles really might be in trouble. Sure, they’ve locked up the NFC’s top seed, with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but one look at the offense last week against the Raiders was enough to strike fear into the hearts of any Eagles fan. The defense is still dominant, and in an otherwise meaningless rivalry game against the Cowboys, it might be best off resting some of its key contributors. But Nick Foles looks like he still needs some time to find his bearings in this offense. Relying on Jay Ajayi and the run game from henceforth might be the safe call, but a one-dimensional offense in a competitive NFC playoffs could be the death knell for the Eagles season. The Cowboys know a thing or two about that.
Player to watch: Zach Ertz, TE. Looks like we’ve figured out who Foles’ top weapon will be on offense. Ertz has 23 targets and 15 catches over the past two weeks. With Foles likely to play at least some of this game, Ertz might again be the most targeted player in the Eagles pass offense. How much Ertz will play remains to be seen.
Line: Cowboys by 3
Pick: Eagles, 24-23
CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Outlook: The slightest chance remains that Pittsburgh could sneak past New England for the AFC’s top seed. But with Bryce Petty up against the Patriots, that’s no more than a pipe dream at this point. More than likely, the Steelers will pound the Browns into submission and bench their starters sometime in the second half. Even in their condition, Cleveland will have plenty to play for, as it stands on the brink of a winless season. A limp effort from the Browns might be enough to convince ownership that Hue Jackson just isn’t working as coach. Though, the record should’ve been enough to do that.
Player to watch: DeShone Kizer, QB. Could Kizer’s time as the Browns’ starting quarterback be limited to just one season? It certainly looks that way. Cleveland has the No. 1 pick locked up and will definitely draft a quarterback. Josh Rosen seems like the favorite, and he’s already much more refined than Kizer.
Line: Steelers by 6.5
Pick: Steelers, 30-17
CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Outlook: Even with a loss here, the Ravens can still make the playoffs. That said, Baltimore will have plenty of motivation to take care of business — especially with a divisional rival on deck. The tiebreakers are complicated if they end up at 9-7. In the simplest of terms, the Ravens have the tiebreaker over the Chargers, but not the Bills or Titans. Win, however, and none of that matters. The Bengals may be motivated to play inspired football with the possibility of this being Marvin Lewis’ last game. But on the other hand, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them come out complacent for the same reason. This won’t be a blowout, but the Ravens should find a way, with so much on the line.
Player to watch: Gio Bernard, Bengals RB. Rookie workhorse Joe Mixon has been hobbled these past few weeks, and in his place, Bernard has reminded everyone who’s still paying attention that he’s always been a really good running back. His skillset is perfectly suited for a defense like the Ravens, and he should get plenty of touches even if Mixon gives it a go.
Line: Ravens by 9.5
Pick: Ravens, 22-19
BUFFALO AT MIAMI
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Outlook: To think a month ago that the Bills might’ve glided into the playoffs if not for a few boneheaded coaching decisions and late-game mistakes. Now, they find themselves fighting for their playoff lives on the road in a divisional rematch from two weeks ago. In that narrow victory, LeSean McCoy had trouble getting anything going, as the Bills were forced to lean on Tyrod Taylor. They also had no answer for Kenyan Drake in that game, and the Dolphins are sure to go back to that well in their home finale. Buffalo still needs some help, if they win this game. But given how things have been going this week, their biggest issue may be taking care of their own business first.
Player to watch: Kelvin Benjamin, WR. In desperation mode, the Bills may find themselves airing it out in this game. Especially if the Dolphins take an early lead. Taylor and Benjamin haven’t really been on the same page since he was traded to Buffalo. But last week’s game against the Patriots offered some optimism on that front. Benjamin could have a role to play.
Line: Bills by 2.5
Pick: Dolphins, 24-20
CAROLINA AT ATLANTA
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Outlook: In one of the few interesting matchups of the season’s final week, the NFC South will reach its thrilling conclusion in Atlanta, where the Falcons will probably need to win to snake their way into the playoffs. They could still make it without a win, but that would require the Seahawks to lose to the Cardinals, which is not likely. So, in all likelihood, it comes down to stopping Cam Newton and Co. at home. It’s hard to say how that might shake out, given how inconsistent Atlanta has been this season. There’s still a scenario in which Carolina could win the NFC South — or, better yet, secure a bye — so Atlanta will certainly get its best effort. Can Matt Ryan and the Falcons uneven offense iron things out just in the nick of time?
Player to watch: Deion Jones, LB. The Falcons have had trouble stopping pass-catching backs all season. The Panthers will be look to exploit that with Christian McCaffrey, and so the Falcons’ speedy linebackers will have their hands full. Jones will alternate between watching McCaffrey and spying Newton. That’s not exactly an easy gig.
Line: Falcons by 4
Pick: Panthers, 30-27
NEW ORLEANS AT TAMPA BAY
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Outlook: In control for the NFC South crown, the Saints look like the NFC’s most complete team heading into the playoffs, and there’s no reason to think they’ll let their foot off the gas in their road finale. The Bucs have been playing better football since Jameis Winston returned from his shoulder injury, but that’s not saying much. Tampa Bay’s season has been an abject disaster, and this very well could be Dirk Koetter’s final week as coach. Meanwhile, Sean Payton has enjoyed a resurgence this season, as he finally ironed out New Orleans’ issues on defense. That defense is what makes the Saints one of the favorites to get all the way to the Super Bowl, and we should see it on display this week.
Player to watch: Cam Jordan, DE. Somewhat quietly, Jordan has been one of the NFL’s best players this season. He has 12 sacks and has been the face of the Saints’ amazing turnaround on defense. Winston may have cut down on mistakes over the past month, but Jordan and his teammates have a way of forcing them, anyway.
Line: Saints by 6
Pick: Saints, 26-17
JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Outlook: More than likely, the Jaguars are locked into the No. 3 slot in the AFC playoffs, but that won’t stop Doug Marrone from playing all of his starters in Week 17. That’s certainly good news for the Chargers, who need the Titans to lose. Whether Marrone follows through on that promise remains to be seen. Tennessee is playing for its playoff life in this one and will still need some help, but the reality is that it simply hasn’t been a good team this season. Against the NFL’s top defense, it’s hard to imagine the offense finding a new gear it hasn’t found in months. The strength of the Jaguars defense is enough to overcome the Titans’ desperation.
Player to watch: Derrick Henry, RB. Finally, we may get a chance to see Henry in a workhorse role. With Murray unlikely to play after shockingly playing every game this season, Henry has a shot to show he doesn’t need a backfield mate in 2018. The Jaguars may rest a few of their defensive stalwarts. Henry could shine.
Line: Titans by 3
Pick: Jaguars, 22-20
OAKLAND AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Outlook: With their division rivals coming to town, the atmosphere at the StubHub Center is likely to be intense. That intensity should be matched on the field, where the Chargers offense will have a plus matchup against a leaky Raiders defense. The possibility of being without RB Melvin Gordon (ankle) is disconcerting, but Philip Rivers is more than capable of taking the team’s playoff future into his own hands. He’s likely to air it out in this one. With the Chargers’ top-notch pass rush bearing down on him, a struggling Derek Carr is going to have a hard time keeping up with him. More than likely, the Raiders will lean on Marshawn Lynch. The Chargers have blown crucial games like this before, but here’s betting they don’t dash their own playoff hopes.
Player to watch: Keenan Allen, WR. Allen’s production has slowed a bit since his four-game tear through November and December, but in a huge game, he’ll no doubt be a huge part of the Chargers’ offensive gameplan. The Raiders held him to just 45 yards back in October, but Oakland’s pass defense has been questionable at best this season.
Line: Chargers by 7
Pick: Chargers, 33-23
ARIZONA AT SEATTLE
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Outlook: No offense has been worse over these past few weeks than the Cardinals, and that’s saying something. Drew Stanton was nothing to write home about in his second chance last week against the Giants. Now he gets the Seahawks, who, even at half-strength, are a more difficult test. The Seahawks will bludgeon the Cardinals with their pass rush and should be successful, given how bad Arizona’s offensive line has been in recent weeks. Seattle can win its way into the playoffs, if the Falcons lose to the Panthers, so they’ll have plenty to play for. This is going to get ugly.
Player to watch: Bobby Wagner, ILB. It’s a wonder how much different Seattle’s defense looks with Wagner at full strength. He’s quite simply one of the NFL’s best defenders, and with a struggling Cardinals offense on tap, he should help the Seahawks take care of business. But will it be enough to sneak into the playoffs?
Line: Seahawks by 9
Pick: Seahawks, 27-13
KANSAS CITY AT DENVER
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Outlook: With their AFC West title locked up, the Chiefs will get Alex Smith — and probably Kareem Hunt — some much needed rest. That leaves rookie Patrick Mahomes to his first start, with Charcandrick West, who’s been fighting illness this week, possibly taking over in the backfield. That still may be enough to beat the Broncos. Back-to-back solid defensive showings from Denver turned into a blowout at the hands of Washington last week, so who knows what to expect from them on that side of the ball. The Broncos secondary is still one of the NFL’s best when it’s on its game. For Mahomes, that could be a tough scenario to open a career.
Player to watch: Mahomes, QB. The Chiefs will likely get their first glimpse at their quarterback of the future. Earlier in the season, fans were clamoring for Mahomes to take over, but the resounding reply was that he’s not ready yet. Might he be ready now? If he looks good, 2018 could give us a serious quarterback competition. Smith will have a shot to prove otherwise in the playoffs.
Line: Broncos by 4
Pick: Chiefs, 20-17
SAN FRANCISCO AT LOS ANGELES RAMS
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Outlook: With only playoff positioning to play for, Sean McVay will make the wise choice to rest nearly all of the Rams’ most important starters. That means no Todd Gurley, Jared Goff, Andrew Whitworth, and John Sullivan on offense, and no Aaron Donald, Alec Ogletree, or Mark Barron on defense. The 49ers are playing for nothing at the moment, too, but Jimmy Garoppolo’s 4-0 start as franchise quarterback certainly has them feeling optimistic. Garoppolo has been on a tear during that stretch, and with the Rams shorthanded, the 49ers suddenly hot offense could pile up some meaningless points in this season finale.
Player to watch: Sean Mannion, QB. Goff will sit this one out, leaving the Rams backup to his first NFL start. Mannion has long received plaudits from coaches, but we’ve never quite seen him against a legitimate defense. At the very least, it should be good practice for the possible disaster scenario of losing Goff.
Line: 49ers by 4
Pick: 49ers, 24-20
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