2018 is the richest year for veteran free-agent quarterbacks in some time, and may also be a bit of an island, as after this season, the pickings will get slim again.
Among quality starters, only Matt Ryan, Nick Foles and Blake Bortles are slated to be free in 2019, and there is no way the Falcons will let Ryan get away and a very good chance Foles could be dealt and earn a new deal this season.
In 2020, only Aaron Rodgers is set to come free, and do you really see the Packers letting him out of town?
For any club that would prefer a plug-and-play veteran over trying to identify the right prospect and then developing him, this is the year to make a move.
There are at least 10 teams with needs at the position – Cardinals, Vikings, Browns, Jets, Broncos, Bills, Saints, Dolphins, Bengals and possibly the Jaguars – be it a starter, backup or retaining their own players.
There is also the issue of available cap space — with the Browns, Jets, Vikings, Bengals, Saints, Bills, Jaguars, Broncos and Cardinals having the most space available, respectively, and the Dolphins currently over the cap.
So let’s spin the wheel and see what kind of fortunes this year’s crop is about to accumulate. Keep in mind that while the total value of these deals is interesting, it is the amount guaranteed that matters.
Kirk Cousins – New York Jets – 5 years, $140 million, $95 million guaranteed
The Jets have just under $75 million in available cap space, so money is not an issue. They were surprisingly competitive in 2017 with perhaps the weakest group of quarterbacks in the league, and they need to make a splash in the NFL’s No. 1 media market to stay relevant.
After using a fourth-round pick on Bruce Petty and a second on Christian Hackenberg, and to this point seemingly missing, throwing a top-five pick at the wall now seems unlikely if it can be avoided.
Matt Stafford is the second-highest-paid player in the league with a $135 million deal — $2.5 million less than Jimmy Garoppolo’s new total dollars — but Stafford received $92 million guaranteed, whereas Garoppolo was promised $74.1 million.
This deal with the Jets would make Cousins the highest-paid player in the league. With the exception of Brees, he is clearly the most deserving in this group of the biggest deal.
Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints – 5 Years, $141 million, $59 million guaranteed
Brees isn’t leaving New Orleans, and the only thing that matters here is how the deal is structured.
The Saints will attempt to strike a deal on the assumption that Brees — who will be 39 this season — has at least two years left as an elite passer. And guaranteeing him the $59 million would make him the top-paid quarterback in the league at $29.5 million a year if he only plays two more seasons.
The Saints currently have about $32 million in cap space so it will be impossible to take the full guarantee in the first two years, but if they can get to 2020 and it’s time to move on and they have $15 million or less in dead cap money on this deal, it will have made sense if they continue to improve and contend over the next two seasons.
Sam Bradford – Cleveland Browns – 3 Years, $75 million, $45 million guaranteed
This is an incredible leap of faith, but which of these clubs can better afford it than the Browns?
The odds are Bradford’s knees might never stand up through an entire season again, but if they do he’s better than any of these guys but Brees, and the perfect choice to lead the development of a bunch of young, offensive skill-position guys around him.
Cleveland needs to spend money somewhere — a lot of it just to get to the floor of the cap — and they arguably have the best offensive line to protect Bradford of any of the QB-needy clubs.
The Browns can back this gamble with DeShone Kizer, who was extremely shaky in 2017 but is far too talented to give up on yet, and loaded with draft capital, they can use the No. 1 overall pick on the best player in the draft and still grab another top QB prospect to develop along with Kizer with pick Nos. 4, 33 or 35.
Case Keenum – Minnesota Vikings – 4 Years, $90 million, $40 million guaranteed
Keenum was the real deal in 2017, and sources close to the Vikings front office tell me they weren’t surprised; in fact, they expected it.
The Vikings like Keenum, but they can’t pretend he doesn’t have a few limitations and that in the last 5 ½ quarters he played in 2017, he didn’t struggle.
Keenum did enough in ’17 to get paid but not quite enough for any club including the Vikings to tie themselves to him too tightly for too long without an escape plan. The $40-million guarantee is a healthy reward for his 2017 season but manageable if he turns out to be more the journeyman backup he was his first four seasons in the league than the top starter he played like for a big chunk of last season.
The Vikings would prefer to keep Bradford but know they can’t gamble on his knees again, and as much as they love Bridgewater on the roster and in the locker room, he is unlikely to ever be a franchise quarterback.
Teddy Bridgewater – Minnesota Vikings – 3 Years, $22 million, $10 million guaranteed
As a backup and an insurance policy, Bridgewater makes sense, and as I just said, the Vikings love the player; it’s just clear he doesn’t have the arm to be a top NFL passer.
On the other hand, if another year of rehab and limited wear and tear allows Bridgewater to get his knee back to 90-95 percent, and Dalvin Cook makes a complete recovery from his knee troubles, the Vikings could match or even surpass their 2017 production.
This formula also gets Minnesota a starter and a backup quarterback for close to the same price as one franchise guy — leaving them with some cap flexibility — and there is no reason they can’t take a run at drafting their quarterback of the future this year as well.
A.J. McCarron – Cardinals – 5 Years, $90 million, $40 million guaranteed
To me, McCarron is the biggest wild card in this free agent crop.
Off his first four years in the league, he should be looking at a backup deal with minimal guaranteed money.
But McCarron didn’t just win, he won big at Alabama, and he had a four-game stretch at the end of the 2015 season – final three regular-season games and a wild-card start – in relief of Andy Dalton in which he was quite effective, if unspectacular.
He then had his value even further inflated last season when the Browns offered a second- and third-round pick for him near the trade deadline before Cleveland screwed the deal up.
The Cardinals have no quarterbacks under contract at the moment, and while they have a defense that is ready to win now, they have less salary cap space to play with than most and a leaky offensive line that requires a healthy and sturdy quarterback to lead it.
McCarron appears to be the best fit for the Cardinals, who will also be drafting a quarterback to develop.
Nick Foles — Denver Broncos — Denver gets Foles, and Eagles’ first-round pick (No. 32); Philadelphia gets Broncos’ first (No. 5)- and both third-rounders (Nos. 71 and 99, the latter Denver’s lone compensatory pick).
John Elway is two years removed from a Super Bowl win, and not looking to rebuild or start over, and Foles could make the Broncos a contender again now.
Drafting Osweiler, Siemian and Lynch hasn’t worked out so well, and I’m guessing Elway is tired of beating his head against the wall.
This trade could be a win-win.
I know a lot of folks are talking about the Eagles keeping Foles for the final year of his deal, but Philadelphia is currently one of two teams that is over the cap. Although the combination of Wentz and Foles at $15 million of cap space is a steal, the $7.6 million the Eagles save by dealing Foles still leaves them over the cap — and they have other needs to address.
For Philly, the move from No. 32 to No. 5 in the first round, and two extra third-round picks is a really nice haul for a guy who won’t play if Wentz is healthy.
Denver gets its franchise quarterback, and still has the 32nd and 40th picks to address its offensive line and other needs.
Josh McCown – Miami Dolphins – 2 Years, $15 million, $6 million guaranteed
McCown is a great guy in the locker room and one of the better backups in the NFL, but at 38 and coming off a season-ending injury, that is all he is.
The Dolphins are going to give it a go with Ryan Tannehill, but Jay Cutler won’t be back (this time I assume he will end up in a broadcast booth) and it seems unlikely Matt Moore will be either and Miami needs an insurance policy.
The bonus could be that McCown has proven wherever he’s gone he is happy to be an outstanding mentor, and this fit makes sense.
Tyrod Taylor – Cincinnati Bengals – 2 Years, $15 million, $6 million guaranteed
Perhaps this isn’t fair, but life isn’t either. Taylor had more than his share of flashes and moments in Buffalo, but the tape says he’s just not an every-day starter in an NFL pro-style offense.
I can’t imagine any team making a significant commitment to him to be anything more than a No. 2, nor can I see the Buffalo Bills not ultimately granting him his release.
As a backup to Andy Dalton, Taylor will be a nice fit, as he has proven he can win games in the NFL and his athleticism and escapability could be an excellent hedge against Cincinnati’s porous offensive line.
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